The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with…
The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest…
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary…
China’s official NBS PMI indicates that growth conditions remain sluggish. Although the composite index ticked up from 50.3 to 50.9, it is still barely in expansionary territory. Notably, the manufacturing PMI – which…
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in…
The December JOLTS survey delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday. Job openings rose from an upwardly revised 8.93 million in November to a three month high of 9.03 million in December, beating expectations of 8.75 million. In…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European sovereign bonds in the periphery offer more upside than high-yield (HY) corporate bonds. Many question the outlook for peripheral bonds in Europe…
Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate…
Results of regional Fed surveys suggest that the US manufacturing sector is starting the year on a weak footing. Monday’s report from the Dallas Fed– the last to release its results for January – showed the…