This week is set to be a busy one for the US market. On the policy front, there is the Wednesday FOMC meeting which will give insight into the Fed’s latest thinking regarding the timing of rate cuts. On the data front,…
China’s industrial profits registered their second consecutive annual contraction last year, falling by 2.3% in 2023. The full year contraction comes despite a surge in industrial profits near year-end. Profit growth…
Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?
A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of…
Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report for December delivered a positive update on the US economy. On the growth side, the data confirm the signal from the Q4 GDP release that consumer spending continues to power…
Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of…
With the latest PCE release confirming that the disinflation process is intact (see The Numbers), a key question facing investors is around the timing of the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts. Indeed, the US inflation surprise index…
According to BCA Research’s The Bank Credit Analyst service, there are two important flaws in the market’s “Goldilocks” narrative. First, investors are assuming inflation will fully return to target…
The Q4 2023 US GDP print delivered a positive message on economic conditions. Although real GDP growth decelerated from 4.9% to 3.3%, it came in well above consensus expectations of 2.0% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow…
Government bond yields rallied and yield curves steepened across the Eurozone on Thursday following a less hawkish than anticipated tone from the ECB. As expected, the central bank kept policy rates unchanged and reiterated that…