Business Cycles
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a lukewarm message on the US economy. Growth, employment, and prices were all relatively stable since the previous release in late-November. Eight districts reported little or no change in activity, three districts…
The 1mm b/d surge in US crude oil production last year was the result of a flood of low-cost drilled-but-uncompleted (DUCs) shale-oil wells coming online, mostly in 2H23 in the Permian Basin, which our colleagues in BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Indian stocks, which benefitted immensely from foreign portfolio inflows and are now very expensive, remain vulnerable to any global risk-off sentiment. The new year marked a new high for…
The British pound was the best performing G10 currency on Wednesday as UK gilts sold off meaningfully with the 10-year yield ending the day nearly 19 basis points higher. An unexpected acceleration in CPI inflation in December prompted the move. Notably,…
The performance of the Industrials sector tends to lag the business cycle, as companies invest in capex on the heels of economic expansion. But demand is not entirely cyclical, as the need to replace obsolete or aging equipment or machines is relatively…
Chinese data continues to send a pessimistic signal for domestic risk assets and China plays. Although at 5.2% in Q4, GDP growth stands above the official target, it underwhelmed anticipations of 5.3%. Moreover, other data releases reveal that the economy…
The US retail sales release delivered a positive signal about the US economy in December. The 0.6% m/m increase in overall retail sales beat expectations of a more muted acceleration from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m. Importantly, the improvement was broad-based with…
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased optimism about the outlook reflects an…
The CHF/JPY has enjoyed a strong upward trend, appreciating by 52.6% since January 2019. Currently, it is 84.6% overvalued relative to PPP, which questions whether a turnaround is imminent. Japan faces more significant inflationary pressures than…
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced. Both global and domestic forces…