The Treasury curve bull steepened meaningfully on Friday with the 2-year yield falling by nearly 11 basis points versus the 3 basis point decline in the 10-year yield. A softer than anticipated US PPI release prompted this move.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the EV boom, much like the initial auto revolution over a century ago, could experience several disruptions. Buying diesel-engine era heroes can act as a call…
In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.
US CPI inflation for December came in slightly hotter than anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Both the monthly and…
US corporate bonds performed well last year with both investment grade and high-yield spreads narrowing in 2023. Indeed, the 12-month breakeven spreads are relatively low – especially in the case of investment grade.…
The best leading indicator for post-pandemic US wage inflation is the ratio of job vacancies to ‘bad’ unemployment (V/U), where bad unemployment refers to ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’. This…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the recent improvement in global manufacturing and Asian exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle amelioration rather than a cyclical recovery. Global…
The combined US credit impulse and fiscal thrust indicator will likely relapse in 2024, heralding growth weakness. Stalling US sales volume and falling inflation, combined with sticky labor costs, will herald a non-trivial profit…
Australian CPI inflation fell from 4.9% y/y to a 22-month low of 4.3% y/y in November – slightly below expectations of 4.4%. Underlying measures of core inflation also indicate that price pressures eased in November. The…
Taiwan’s December trade data corroborates the signal from other Asian exporters (such as South Korea) that global manufacturing activity is experiencing a mini revival. Taiwanese exports surged by 11.8% y/y last month,…