Business Cycles
Weaker-than-anticipated economic data caused a sharp decline in UK gilt yields over the past few days with the 10 year yield now at its lowest since May. The weakness in economic data was broad-based across various sectors of the UK economy. In the…
As expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range on Friday. Although the statement continued to indicate that the Fed is prepared to tighten further, it also acknowledged that there has been a slowdown in economic growth and that…
The Thai economy has continued to underwhelm its ASEAN peers since the pandemic. It grew at a measly 1.5% in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year. Thai stocks and the currency have sold off as well. That said, the recently elected government…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the AI gold rush will struggle to find any gold. In a gold rush, very few people get rich finding gold. But the guys selling the picks and shovels make a fortune! In the current AI gold rush, the guy…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, Treasury curve steepeners will pay off handsomely once the next recession hits. However, curve flatteners (aka barbelled Treasury portfolios) offer better value for the near term. A barbelled Treasury…
The November US CPI release came in broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday. On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation eased from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y while core inflation was unchanged at 4.0% y/y. On a monthly basis, both headline and core…
Australian materials stocks have been outperforming the country’s broad index since mid-August, undoing the sector’s relative losses of the prior months, and bringing the year-to-date gain to 7.7% in absolute terms – above the broad index’s 3.5% increase.…
The continued improvement in German investor morale captured by the ZEW survey corroborates other indicators pointing to near-term support for Eurozone stocks. Economic sentiment jumped three points to a 9-month high of 12.8 in December, surprising…
US small-cap stocks have benefitted from the recent improvement in risk sentiment. The S&P 600 is up 10% over the past month – exceeding the S&P 500’s gains by 5.4 percentage points after having underperformed throughout most of the past year. …
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …