Business Cycles
Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point drop in one-year ahead inflation…
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
The gold/silver ratio (GSR) confirmed the improvement in global risk sentiment in November. It declined on the back of a 9.2% rally in silver, which outpaced the 1.9% rise in gold. Since then, the GSR has soared amid a more pronounced drop in the price of…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European equities near cycle highs are vulnerable to weaker earnings. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a double-digit profit contraction over the next…
The Santa Claus rally is a repricing of the "soft landing" scenario as a likely economic outcome. Yet, many investors remain cautious, and harbor significant cash balances. Next year, repricing of various scenarios will continue, and volatility will be elevated. We remain in a "hard landing" camp and recommend defensive stance on a strategic investment horizon.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent an optimistic signal about the attitude of the US consumer on Friday, handily beating consensus estimates across the board. The preliminary headline index came in at 69.4, up from 62.0 in November, surprising…
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Fed will be surprisingly dovish in 2024 but it has a poor track record of avoiding recessions once monetary policy is restrictive. The independence of the Fed is misunderstood: The Fed is…
The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. …
On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time since April. The 0.5% y/y…