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Business Cycles

US Credit Markets Are Complacent
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, US corporate bond spreads are far too tight. The soft landing narrative took hold of markets in November as the overnight index swap (OIS) curve moved to price in 159 bps of Fed easing between now and…
Daily Insights
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Key Views: Geopolitics In 2024

Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership. Overweight government bonds, defensive sectors, the Americas versus other regions, aerospace/defense stocks, and cyber-security stocks.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
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2024 Key Views: The End Of Eras

We expect the US economy to slow and potentially downshift into a recession sometime in 2024, as tighter monetary policy weighs on consumers and businesses. In addition, (geo)political tensions may increase market volatility. The risk/return for US equities is unfavorable. We recommend that our clients reduce portfolio beta and increase allocations to defensives and quality growth.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Eurozone Sentix: A Durable Improvement?
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more meaningful improvement to -15.6.…
Daily Insights
November Survey Results: Bracing For Recession
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the timing of the next US recession, the Fed, and concerns for the global economy in 2024. On the US economic outlook, nearly all respondents…
Daily Insights
S&P 500 Sectors Are Churning Beneath The Surface
S&P 500 Sectors Are Churning Beneath The Surface …
Daily Insights
The Eurozone's Three Credit Phases In 2024
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will likely be characterized by three credit…
Daily Insights
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Credit Implications Of A Eurozone Recession

The recent uptick in European economic data will not last beyond the next six months. How will European corporate credit perform in this context?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
The Recession That Never Came?
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…
Daily Insights
US ISM Disappoints In November
The US ISM PMI sent a slightly negative signal about US manufacturing conditions in November. The headline index came in unchanged at 46.7, which suggests that the pace of contraction was more pronounced than consensus estimates expecting the PMI to increase…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics