The S&P 500 closed at a fresh year-to-date high on Friday, breaking slightly above its late-July top. The brisk rally since late-October erased all the losses of the prior three months. However, the sector performance has…

  According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will…

  The US ISM PMI sent a slightly negative signal about US manufacturing conditions in November. The headline index came in unchanged at 46.7, which suggests that the pace of contraction was more pronounced than consensus estimates…

  The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high…

  Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the…

  According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now…

  As expected, US personal income growth moderated from an upwardly revised 0.4% to 0.2% in October. However, disposable personal income growth experienced a less pronounced slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% -- particularly in real terms…

  Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35…

  BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service does not expect a global recession next year.  In practical terms, this means they are more bullish on their oil-price outlook for 2024 than the consensus and also differ…