Business Cycles
Flash estimates for European consumer confidence met expectations at -12.5 in October, rising from -12.9 in September. Despite this positive development, Euro Area sentiment remains poor. Consumer confidence remains below its long-term average and near the…
Dear client, We are launching a new type of Daily Insight titled “Cross-Asset Focus”, where we delve into the dynamics between multiple asset classes, tying them to the current macro and market regimes. The inaugural entry looks at the dynamics between…
According to the latest estimate of the output gap, the US economy still operates above potential. Continued overheating – a no-landing scenario – would cause a drastic re-pricing across markets which expect a near-perfect soft-landing. The output gap is…
US Treasury yields rose nearly 60 bps since their September lows, with the 10-year maturity recently reaching 4.2%. This move was a bear steepening, the front of the curve did not rise as much. Positive economic surprises mainly drove this spike, but the…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team sees evidence of a “Trump trade” across markets, as the dollar strengthens, Treasury yields jump, and US small caps try to break out. However, the tactical and cyclical outcomes differ. While Trump 2.0 points to tariffs…
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging. According to Rightmove, total home prices were up 0.3% in October and…
The recent slump in globally- and tech-sensitive East Asian trade shows no respite, with advanced October Korean exports and September Taiwanese export orders data disappointing. Korean exports for the first 20 days of October dropped 2.9% year-over-year…
Our US Equity Strategy colleagues expect Q3 earnings to be strong enough to fuel the soft-landing narrative. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to be 4.0% year-over-year, with sales growth of 4.0% too. Yet, with average surprises of 5.6% for…
China’s Housing Administration Chief held a press conference yesterday to unveil two property-sector stimulus plans. According to our China strategists, the details were underwhelming and led to a decline in Chinese equities. The major plan doubles credit…
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish developments. First, there is more to…