Business Cycles
Friday's Tokyo CPI release suggests that inflationary pressures are picking back up again in Japan. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% y/y – surprising expectations it would remain unchanged at 2.8% y/y. The ex-fresh food component also unexpectedly rose…
Recent US data reveals that consumer spending has been extremely robust in the US (see The Numbers). Personal consumption expanded by 4.0% q/q annualized in Q3, helping lift aggregate economic growth. Nevertheless, Consumer Discretionary is the second worst…
The US Q3 GDP release delivered a positive signal about the US economy. Economic growth accelerated from 2.1% q/q to 4.9% q/q on an annualized basis – beating expectations of 4.5%. A significant acceleration in consumption growth (from 0.8% to 4.0%) accounted…
As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the dovish side. True, the ECB…
Although luxury goods producers are facing headwinds, the top end is still holding up well. Hermes, which represents the top-end of the luxury sector, reported a 16% increase in sales in the third quarter, of which half came from higher prices of its…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service remains overweight Mexican financial markets relative to their EM counterparts on a cyclical and structural basis. While Mexican markets will suffer in absolute terms with the impending global risk-off…
Results of the October German IFO survey corroborate the positive signal from the latest ZEW survey. The headline Business Climate Index increased for the first time since April, rising from 85.8 to 86.9, above expectations of 86.0. This was driven by…
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 5% for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. The Bank cited clear evidence of the impact of elevated interest rates on demand — especially in durable and semi-durable…
The price of gold has rallied by 9.2% since October 5, reaching a 5-month high by Wednesday's close. Notably, this latest rally comes despite real bond yields having been trending higher for the past two weeks. Given that higher bond yields typically weigh…
According to BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service, the property market has not cleared. Property market indicators suggest that China's real estate sector is still struggling to stabilize. Home sales and starts have entered their third year of…