Business Cycles
The US JOLTS report sent a chill through financial markets on Tuesday. The bigger-than-expected number of job openings in August fueled investors’ concern that the Fed will be forced to maintain a hawkish stance for longer. Indeed, the number of job…
The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed Governor Michele Bullock noted…
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in April – meaning inflation data is…
On The Broad-Based S&P 500 Selloff In Q3
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The Caixin and NBS PMIs sent mixed signals about Chinese economic conditions in September. The NBS results surprised to the upside on the back of slightly greater-than-anticipated increases in both the manufacturing (+0.5 to 50.2) and non-manufacturing…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents expect the price of oil to end the…
The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up by a marginal 0.1 point to 49.1 in September, indicating that manufacturing activity deteriorated at a slightly slower pace than in August. However, several of the details of the report were more optimistic. In…
The “September Effect” was in full force again this year as the broad-based selloff continued. Nearly all major financial assets generated outsized returns last month. In particular, the “higher for longer” narrative dominated the market action. Global and…
Within alternatives, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service favors Private Credit since yields are in double-digits and lenders are in a strong negotiating position. Private Credit (Overweight): Considering the current trend of extremely…
Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash balances may offer downside protection against a sharp correction.