According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, current monetary policy settings at the Fed and ECB risk pushing commodity and energy prices lower. Lower prices and higher rates will suppress capex and…
Euro Area inflation data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. According to preliminary data, although Germany’s harmonized headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in August, it nevertheless came in…
US Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% on a quarterly annualized basis, only slightly above Q1 growth of 2.0%. Although consumption was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, business spending grew at a slower…
Consensus expectations for the US economy were bleak at the start of the year. In hindsight, this pessimism was excessive: real GDP expanded in the first two quarters of the year (see Country Focus). Similarly, the US Conference…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that…
On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the US labor market continues to cool. It showed job openings fell to 8.827 million in July following a downwardly revised 9.165 million in June (down…
The US and China agreed to hold trade talks more regularly on August 28, even as they fell short of establishing a strategic détente or general reduction of tensions. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing…
On the surface, the latest uptick in the General Business Activity Index of the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Survey suggests that manufacturing activity is no longer deteriorating at an accelerating pace. The indicator rose…
The Eurozone's economy remains soft. Yesterday we highlighted that M3 money supply fell by 0.4% y/y in July, a rate unseen since 2010. This decline was driven by a slowdown in private sector bank lending, which confirms broad…
Tokyo’s headline CPI inflation fell below expectations in August, easing from 3.2% y/y to 2.9% y/y – slightly below anticipations of 3.0% y/y and the first dip below 3% in nearly one year. Similarly, the slowdown in…