Business Cycles
Over the past two months, risk sentiment has improved amid receding fears of an imminent US recession. Economic data have been generating strong upside surprises and the US equity rally has broadened with cyclicals outperforming defensives since the beginning…
Greece is experiencing a strong economic revival from its lows of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The Hellenic Republic has shown resilience, with an annual real GDP growth of 4.5%, outpacing the Euro Area’s growth by 2%. Greece is also faring better on the…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange Strategy services, the British pound is overbought in the near-term and is at risk of a pullback on easing rate expectations, but this will represent a medium-term buying opportunity. The…
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone sent a positive signal on Monday. It unexpectedly increased from -22.5 to -18.9 in August, surprising expectations of a further deterioration to -24.5. This marks the index’s first increase in four months. A…
Core inflation in the US should drift lower in the coming months. However, it is too early to conclude that the US is completely out of the woods when it comes to inflation. Given that the US job market remains tight, and the economy remains resilient, it…
The Norwegian krone’s fortunes have recently reversed. It has been the best performing G10 currency since the end of May. This comes after a period of pronounced weakness during which it was the only G10 currency to depreciate vis-à-vis the US dollar between…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service cautions against turning bullish on corporate bonds. Corporate bonds have delivered strong excess returns versus duration-matched Treasuries during the past two months. Yet the team’s fair value models, based on…
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by less than anticipated in July, rising by 187 thousand versus expectations of 200 thousand. In addition, the June increase was revised down from 209 thousand to 185 thousand. Similarly, average weekly hours worked…
The S&P 500 has had a rough start to August. The index’s selloff since the end of July has pushed it down by 2.4%. Notably, the weakness is broad-based with all S&P 500 sectors in the red over this period. This marks a sharp reversal in performance…
On Friday, shipping giant Maersk delivered a pessimistic outlook for global trade. Although the company raised its 2023 earnings forecast, the upgrade comes on the back of a better-than-anticipated performance in the first half of the year. Ebitda fell by 72%…