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Canada

Economic Uncertainty Is Top Concern Among Canadian Businesses
Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator increased slightly in Q4, suggesting that sentiment stabilized at the end of 2023. In particular, easing inflationary pressures amid weaker demand and greater competition drove the 0.3-point uptick. Notably,…
Daily Insights
Falling Inflation Supports End Of RBA Hikes
Australian CPI inflation fell from 4.9% y/y to a 22-month low of 4.3% y/y in November – slightly below expectations of 4.4%. Underlying measures of core inflation also indicate that price pressures eased in November. The rate of growth in CPI excluding…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Returning To Normal

In this, our final report of the year, we present our main global fixed income investment themes and recommendations for 2024.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
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The Fed In 2024

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

The Bank Credit Analyst by Ryan Swift
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The Fed In 2024

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Pivot To Rate Cuts: Context Matters
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
Daily Insights
The BoC Stands Pat
The BoC kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In its press release, the BoC maintained that it is ready to keep hiking if deemed necessary. That said, the BoC noted that inflationary…
Daily Insights
Canadian Inflation Continues To Cool
Tuesday’s CPI release confirmed that the disinflationary trend in Canada remains intact. After a brief relapse this summer, Canada’s inflation is headed in the right direction. As anticipated, headline CPI inflation came in at 3.1% y/y in October, down from…
Daily Insights
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A Review Of Our Current Tactical Trades

In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing of the German bund-JGB spread and wider Japanese inflation breakevens.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
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Signs Of Cracks In DM Labor Markets

Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant model on a daily basis for confirmation.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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