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Canada

Weak private sector activity and persistent labor softness point to greater-than-expected BoC easing risks. Canadian Q3 GDP beat expectations at 0.6% q/q (2.6% annualized), avoiding a technical recession after Q2’s contraction. Growth was driven by strong…
Persistent Canadian employment weakness and muted inflation point to further easing below neutral. Canadian employment appeared to stabilize in September and October, but more reliable data paint a weaker picture. While the October LFS showed rebounding job…

This week, our screeners explore opportunities in the Swedish stock market, Canadian gold-exposed and domestic-focused sectors, and ex-tech GenAI names.

Canadian inflation cooled less than expected in October, reinforcing the BoC’s short-term pause but signaling scope for lower yields ahead. Headline CPI rose 2.2% y/y, slowing from 2.4%, with gasoline prices driving the decline. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists adopted a neutral stance on Canadian bonds, currency, and equities, as subdued growth and stabilizing inflation keep the BoC on hold. Canada is moving past the 2025 trade shock, with declining uncertainty and signs of…

The trade war hit Canada’s economy hard, but the worst is over. In our latest update on Canada, we assess the aftermath of the trade shock, the new budget, and the effects of BoC easing. We outline what this means for duration, the Loonie, and Canadian stocks heading into 2026.

Canada’s October jobs report beat expectations, but underlying details suggest momentum remains fragile. Employment rose 66k after a 60.4k gain in September, while unemployment unexpectedly declined to 6.9% from 7.1%. The participation rate edged up to 65.3%…
2025 has underscored widening policy and market divergence between the US and Canada, but Canadian yields still offer room for downside. The spread between the 2-year GoC yield and the overnight rate is less than 10 bps, compared with over 40 bps between the…

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.