Canadian retail sales were surprisingly resilient in April. They grew by 0.9% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis from an upwardly revised 0.2% m/m in March. Ex-auto sales grew by 1.3% m/m from an upwardly revised 2.6% m/m in…
As expected, the Bank of Canada raised its key overnight interest rate by 50bps to 1.5% on Wednesday, its second consecutive half-point hike. The post-meeting statement highlighted that at 6.8% in April, CPI inflation exceeds…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary US Financial Conditions Have Tightened Significantly This Year US financial conditions have tightened by enough that the Fed no…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary EUR/JPY And The DXY: Unsustainable Gap Three interrelated themes are likely to play out by the end of 2022 – peak Fed hawkishness,…
Executive Summary Global inflation will peak sometime in the next few months, a process that has likely already begun in the US. This will give policymakers some breathing room to turn less hawkish, a more credible stance given…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Likes Volatility Uncertainty about Fed policy has supercharged volatility in bond markets, and correspondingly, USD demand (Feature…
Executive Summary Summarizing Our Main Investment Themes In One Chart Our current strategic recommendations are centered around four key themes: global inflation will slow over the rest of 2022, Europe remains too weak to…
Canada’s CPI inflation rate surged from 5.7% y/y to a fresh 31-year high of 6.7% y/y in March, beating expectations of a milder increase to 6.1% y/y. The underlying measures of inflation are more subdued, but still…
Executive Summary A Good Time For A Pause In The Bond Bear Market The global government bond selloff looks stretched from a technical perspective, and a consolidation phase is likely over the next few months as global…
While we expect low housing inventory to mute the negative impact of rising mortgage rates on the US housing sector (see The Numbers), the same cannot be said for Canada. Canadian households’ debt to income ratio is…