Inflationary pressures are likely to keep the Bank of Canada at least as hawkish - if not more hawkish - than the Fed. Headline CPI accelerated to a 18-year high of 4.1% y/y in August. The diffusion index's extremely…
Highlights Canada has been a G10 leader in innoculating its population. This should allow economic activity to resume, boosting the CAD/USD. A cresting in COVID-19 infections should permit the Bank of Canada to reintroduce a hawkish…
The Bank of Canada left policy unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. The benchmark interest rate remains 0.25% and the central bank will continue purchasing Canadian government bonds at the current pace of CAD 2 billion a week…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy service concludes that Canadian fiscal policy is likely to remain supportive for growth over the next few years. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called a snap federal election…
Highlights Confidence vs. Inflation: Global bond yields are lacking direction at the moment. The variant is setting a near-term ceiling on bond yields while the medium-term floor is established by inflation. The inflation pressures…
The US trade deficit jumped 6.7% to a record USD75.7 billion in June, a good USD 1.5 billion above expectations. The wider deficit reflects a 2.1% increase in US imports, which outpaced the 0.6% rise in exports. Strong imports…
Canada’s June CPI inflation report suggests that inflationary pressures are moderating. The headline index eased to 3.1% y/y from 3.6%, falling below expectations of 3.2%. The deceleration is corroborated by softer prints…
Highlights Global oil demand will remain betwixt and between recovery and relapse through 3Q21, as stronger DM consumer spending and increasing mobility wrestles with persistent concerns over COVID-19-induced lockdowns in Latin America…