Highlights Global Inflation: The case for maintaining a strategic overall allocation to inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) versus nominal government debt in dedicated global fixed income portfolios remains intact. Global growth expectations…
Highlights Continued upgrades to global economic growth – most recently by the IMF this week –will support higher natgas prices. In our estimation, gas for delivery at Henry Hub, LA, in the coming withdrawal season (…
Highlights Q1/2021 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed the custom benchmark index by +55bps during the first quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The government bond side of the portfolio…
Highlights Central Bank Expectations: Market expectations of short-term interest rate moves over the next few years are inching higher. The potential for markets to offer a greater bond-bearish challenge to the current highly dovish…
Crude oil prices peaked in early March this year, but among the commodity and G10 currencies, the Canadian dollar has fared relatively better. Since the peak in oil prices, NOK, AUD and NZD are down over 1%. The CAD is however up…
Highlights Global Duration: Markets are correctly interpreting the $1.9 trillion US fiscal stimulus package as a factor justifying higher global growth expectations and bond yields. Maintain a below-benchmark stance on overall global…
Canadian government bond yields fell sharply last Wednesday on the Bank of Canada’s more dovish than expected statement in which significant labor market slack was highlighted as a justification for maintaining an…
The Bank of Canada did not adjust policy at its Wednesday meeting. The overnight rate was held at 0.25% and the current pace of government bond purchases was maintained at a minimum CAD4 billion/week. Canadian bond markets…
Highlights Rising Global Yields: The increased turbulence in global bond markets is part of the adjustment process to a more positive outlook for global economic growth. Rising real yields are now the main driver of nominal yield…