To all clients, Next week, in lieu of publishing a regular report, I will be hosting a webcast on September 15th at 10 am EDT, discussing our latest views on global fixed income markets. Sign up details for the Webcast will…
A tactical trading opportunity has also opened up to go short the NZD/CAD cross. First, the New Zealand stock market is the most defensive in the world, given the high concentration in consumer staples, healthcare and telecom…
The Canadian equity market continues to underperform the global benchmark. Canadian stocks suffer from three handicaps. First, Canada is underweight the tech sector, which has been the undoubted market leader over the past 10…
The Canadian labor market continues to heal. In June, Canada generated 952 thousand positions, beating expectations of 700 thousand. Positively, a little over half of these jobs were in full-time positions. Additionally, the…
The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (BoS) for Q2 was inordinately weak. The overall number fell to -7 and the Outlook for Future Sales reading tanked to -35, levels reminiscent of the GFC. Moreover, the Capacity Pressures…
Highlights Butterflies & Yield Curve Models: With bond market volatility now back to the subdued levels seen prior to the COVID-19 market turbulence earlier in 2020, it is a good time to update our global yield curve valuation…
Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models suggest the US dollar is broadly overvalued. We are maintaining a modest procyclical currency stance (long NOK, GBP and SEK), but also have a portfolio hedge (short USD/JPY). Go…
NZD/CAD is likely to appreciate over the coming six to nine months. For the past two and a half years, the NZD/CAD cross has closely followed the 1-year/1-year forward swap rate differential between Canada and New Zealand. We…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of the Monitors are now below the zero line, indicating the need for continued easy global monetary policy to help mitigate the…