Dear Clients, In addition to this Weekly Report, you will also be getting a Special Report authored by some of our top strategists on global growth. The manufacturing recession that began in early 2018 has lasted longer than most…
Canadian data has been firing on all cylinders of late, so it was no surprise that Governor Stephen Poloz decided to keep interest rates on hold today. That said, details in its monetary policy report were notably cautious…
Highlights The sharp fall in the bond-to-gold ratio is an important signal to pay heed to. It might suggest that confidence in the U.S. dollar is finally waning. If correct, the sharp rally in crypto currencies over the past few…
This morning’s CPI report showed that Canadian core inflation continues to accelerate. The average of the three measures followed by the Bank of Canada moved up to 2.1% in May from 1.9% in April. Underlying inflation…
Highlights Global financial markets are currently dealing with a fresh round of uncertainty related to U.S.-China trade tensions. Yet while equities and government bond yields have fallen in response to the U.S. imposition of tariffs and…
The BoC places a lot of weight on the Business Outlook Survey (BoS) in determining its economic forecasts, and in setting monetary policy. Thus, it is no surprise that in the official statement following the April 24…
The problem for the BoC is that its policy rate of 1.75% remains well below its own estimated neutral range, which is now 2.25%-3.25%. A similar message comes when looking at the neutral real rate (“r-star”) estimate…
Highlights U.S.: The Fed remains decidedly neutral, despite market expectations (and White House pressure) for lower U.S. interest rates. Treasury yields are mispriced and should grind higher over the next 6-12 months, led first by…