Highlights Central bankers appear to be in a rush to boost inflation expectations before the next economic downturn. This in practice should be stimulative for the global economy. Historically, currencies of small, open economies are…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of our country Monitors are now forecasting monetary policy on hold, apart from Australia and New Zealand where looser policy is…
Highlights The correlation between oil and petrocurrencies has deeply weakened in recent years. One of the reasons has been the prominence of new, important producers, notably the U.S. Oil prices should trend towards $75/bbl by year-…
Canadian government bonds have been clawing back much of the relative underperformance that occurred in 2017 and 2018 when the Bank of Canada (BoC) was delivering multiple rate hikes. The spread between the yields on the…
Highlights Global Spread Product: The current low-volatility backdrop, triggered by more dovish central banks, will be maintained until there is more decisive evidence that global growth is rebounding. That will not occur until the…
An improvement in leading economic indicators in the spring will set the stage for a reacceleration in global growth and a decline in the dollar in the second half of this year. The combination of stronger growth and a weaker…
First, valuations and balance-of-payment dynamics favor the euro versus the CAD on a long-term basis. Second, we estimate there is more scope for long-term interest-rate expectations to rise in the euro area than in Canada.…
Highlights The deceleration in global growth that began in 2018 is entering a transition phase. The bottoming out process could prove to be volatile, warning against betting the farm too early on pro-cyclical currencies. Tactical…
Highlights Price differentials between global light-sweet crude oil benchmarks Brent and WTI will narrow over the next three years, as U.S. light-sweet crude oil exports expand and North Sea production growth remains challenged. U.S.…
At the end of 2019, Canadian growth ground to a halt. Not only are exports hurt by the recent decline in global growth, but domestic economic activity is also reeling, as capex remains soft, households are reluctant to spend, and…