With the Canadian economy operating at full employment and with inflation at target, the BoC seems determined to push the policy rate back up towards their estimated 2.5%-3.5% range for the neutral rate. This means another 75-…
Highlights Growth Scare: Despite the recent pickup in global equity market volatility, bond volatility remains subdued. Until there is more decisive evidence of a deeper pullback in global growth that is impacting the mighty U.S.…
The removal of uncertainty related to the U.S.-Canada trade negotiations gave the Bank of Canada (BoC) plenty of room to move toward a tighter monetary policy stance. Our Global Fixed Income Strategy team think this is…
Highlights The Fed remains on a tightening course as the U.S. economy has no spare capacity, yet growth in the rest of the world is suffering as EM financial conditions are tightening. It will take more pain for the Fed to capitulate…
Our Global Investment Strategy team recommended this position past June as a means to benefit from potential China downside, and U.S. upside. A weaker yuan and Chinese economy will raise raw material costs to Chinese firms.…
The rout in EM assets, signs of softening global growth, and tough rhetoric from the White House on trade (NAFTA in particular) have conspired to create fertile grounds for downward pressure on the CAD. Much of the bad news…
Highlights We review last year's "Three Tantalizing Trades" and offer four additional ones: Trade #1: Long June 2019 Fed funds futures contract/short Dec 2020 Fed funds futures contract Trade #2: Long USD/CNY Trade #3…
Highlights The U.S. dollar is likely to correct further over the coming weeks. The CAD should benefit as it is cheap and oversold, and the inflationary back-drop warrants tighter monetary conditions. This will be a bear market rally,…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. The message now conveyed by the Monitors is that divergences between the cyclical pressures faced by the individual central banks…