Highlights U.S. Treasuries: U.S. Treasury yields are too low relative to the strength of global economic growth and the rising trend in U.S. inflation expectations. Maintain below-benchmark duration exposure in the U.S., stay…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of December 31, 2017. The model's allocation to Australia has proven to be quite volatile as evidenced by the large increase to…

Dear Client, We are sending you this last issue of the year, a lighter fare than usual, highlighting 10 charts we find important. The first two charts tackle two of the key economic questions of the day: U.S. inflation and Chinese…

Recommended Allocation  Highlights We are late cycle. Strong growth could turn in 2018 from a positive for risk assets into a negative. More risk-averse investors may thus want to turn cautious. But the last year of a bull run…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update One thing worth noting is that the model now is neutral on Canada, after a long-standing underweight. Canada's valuation ranking had been improving, but the signal was only confirmed…

Special Report

Highlights We are exploring the key FX implications of the views presented in BCA's 2018 annual outlook. The dollar is likely to experience some upside in the first half of 2018, but then weaken as U.S. monetary policy becomes…

Highlights The euro doesn't have the key attributes of a funding or a risk-off currency. This means its behavior is not fixed. While in the past it has behaved as a risk-off currency, this year it has traded as a risk-on one,…

Special Report

Dear Client, Instead of our Weekly Report, we are sending you this Special Report written by my colleague Marko Papic, BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Marko argues that while there is considerable risk that NAFTA is abrogated,…

Special Report

Highlights NAFTA is truly at risk - as currency markets suggest; NAFTA's impact on the U.S. economy is positive but marginal; The key question is whether Trump is a true populist or a "pluto-populist"; If the former,…

Highlights Jerome Powell takes the helm of the Federal Reserve at a time when both sides of the Fed's dual mandate are in conflict. The lagging nature of inflation explains why it has failed to rise even though the unemployment…