Highlights The divergence between global bond yields and equity prices is not as puzzling as it may first appear. Thus far, lower inflation has dampened the need for central banks to tighten monetary policy. This has caused bond yields…

Highlights The Federal Reserve stuck to its guns, which lifted the U.S. dollar despite a disastrous CPI report. We agree with the Fed's assessment and expect U.S. inflation to pick up, clearing the way for higher interest rates and…

Highlights The political theater in Washington has caused the last inning of the dollar correction to materialize. The U.S. economy remains at full employment, growth will stay above trend, and the Fed will be capable of hiking rates…

Highlights Duration: The opposing forces currently pulling on global bonds - softer growth and core inflation readings vs. tightening labor markets - are keeping yields locked into narrow trading ranges. We expect the strength of the…

Highlights The headwinds against commodity currencies are still brewing, the selloff is not over. Global liquidity conditions are deteriorating and EM growth will disappoint. The valuation cushion in commodity currencies and EM plays…

Special Report

Highlights Uncovered Interest Rate Parity still works for currencies. However, it needs to be based on a combination of short- and long-term real rates. Currencies are also affected by the global risk appetite, as approximated by…

Highlights The level of Fed interest rates, in absolute or relative terms, has been a poor determinant of dollar bull markets. A more useful marker has been the relative performance of U.S. assets as well as relative growth rates.…

Special Report

Highlights Dusting Off The BCA Bond Model: As central bankers moving away from the hyper-easy monetary policies of the post-crisis era, reverting back to more traditional bond investing tools, like our BCA Bond Model - which focuses on…

Special Report

Highlights The years since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis have been dominated by the major central banks emptying their toolkits to fight off deflationary pressures and sustain even modest nominal growth rates. Extraordinary policy…