US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Canadian Consumer Staples, high-beta Swedish equities, and factor plays across global equities.
After seven consecutive cuts brought policy into neutral territory, the BoC held its deposit rate at 2.75% reinforcing our neutral-to-negative stance on Canadian government bonds. With policy now within the 2.25%-3.25% neutral range…
Cooler inflation will not shift the BoC’s stance, as stagflation limits potential easing, keeping us neutral on Canadian bonds. In March, headline CPI slowed more than expected to 2.3% y/y from 2.6%. However, lower energy prices…
Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from…
Canada’s difficult macro outlook is already priced, supporting a neutral stance on Canadian government bonds within a global fixed-income portfolio. We continue to recommend a small long CAD/USD position, where bad news is well…
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
February Canadian headline inflation was stronger than expected, rising to 2.6% y/y from 1.9% in January. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were also slightly hotter than expected, both rising to 2.9% from 2.7% a month prior, near…
Our Global Fixed Income team wrote a primer on the Canadian provincial bond market, an overlooked yet substantial market. Canadian provincial bonds are a major segment of the country's fixed income market, with spreads primarily…
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 2.75% as expected. This seventh consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range. The BoC is in a tough place. The trade war…