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Canada

Contained Canadian inflation and soft macro conditions support our overweight on Canadian government bonds. May CPI was in line with expectations, with headline inflation holding at 1.7% y/y and core measures slowing to 3.0%, the upper bound of the BoC’s…

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies. 

Canada’s Headwinds Push The BoC Toward Easing …

The Bank of Canada may be on hold for now, but deflationary risks are rising fast. Find out why rate cuts may come sooner than markets expect.

Canadian Inflation: The Tree That Hides The Forest …

The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.

Soft April jobs confirm the Canadian labor market stall, yet we remain neutral on CGBs and structurally bullish on the CAD. The unemployment rate rose more than expected to 6.9% from 6.7%. Employment growth exceeded expectations but remains soft at 7.4k after…
The Carney-Trump summit signals an early shift toward trade de-escalation, creating a tactical tailwind for risk assets. President Trump referred to the Canada-US relationship as a “wonderful marriage.” Moreover, both leaders acknowledged that the USMCA is “a…

The US and Canada will resolve their trade dispute quickly, leading to a North American deal and better prospects for future relations, as well as for other US trade deals around the world. But even as tariff threats decline, the US economy will slow, weighing on its neighbors. Canada will fare better than Mexico.

Canada’s election outcome and macro backdrop support our neutral stance on CGBs and long CAD/USD structural positioning. Mark Carney’s Liberals retained power in Monday’s federal election and are likely to form a minority government. The campaign centered on…