BCA will be holding the Dubai session of the BCA Academy seminar on November 28 & 29. This two-day course teaches investment professionals how to examine the economy, policy, and markets; and also makes links between these important…
Highlights Despite a tough week, the dollar bull market is intact. The U.S. economy's resilience to a strong dollar is growing. But, if Trump wins, the dollar could temporarily sell off against EUR, CHF, and JPY. Favor these…
Highlights The U.S. is not yet a "high-pressure" economy, but slack is dissipating. U.S. growth, while not torrid, will remain high enough to push interest rates higher. The euro area continues to exhibit tepid domestic…
Global bond yields continue to grind higher, led by signs of improving growth, moderately higher inflation and central banks having difficulty staying credibly dovish. Maintain a below-benchmark duration stance.
As the U.S. median voter is shifting to the left, redistributive policy could come into play. A strong dollar helps to achieve this goal as it results in a bigger share of labor income in the economy. EM and commodity currencies…
Wedged between an improving labor market but icy global conditions, the Fed may be on the verge of conducting a policy mistake. This would be dollar and yen bullish. Commodity and EM currencies should bear the brunt of any pain. The…
U.S. inflationary forces remain tame, forcing the Fed to maintain an easy bias. Yet, the global economy is improving. This confluence could weigh on the dollar and boost commodity currencies. The NZD has more upside, but it will lag…
While the BoE and the Fed are increasingly committed to letting inflation expectations rise, the BoJ disappointed once again. The dollar and the pound are likely to experience broad weaknesses, while gold, the euro and commodity…
In July, the model outperformed both global equities and the S&P 500 in local-currency terms, while underperforming in U.S. dollar terms. For the monthly of August, the model made no changes to overall risk exposure.