Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
Recent Canadian data confirm slowing growth, reinforcing support for government bonds and steepeners. The October CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 from 50.2, indicating contraction and underscoring the risk posed by small…
The latest BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey reaffirms the US dollar’s dominance in global FX markets, highlighting the structural challenges of truly moving away from the USD-centric financial system. The survey conducted in…
Canada’s Q2 GDP contraction underscores a fragile backdrop where growth risks will outweigh inflation, supporting further BoC easing. Real GDP contracted at an annualized 1.6% after expanding 2.2% in Q1, consistent with survey data…
Canada’s fragile growth backdrop reinforces the case for more BoC easing than markets price. June retail sales rose 1.5% m/m, in line with expectations. Excluding autos, sales were stronger at 1.9%. However, the advance estimate…
Canada’s July jobs report was mixed, but persistent slack and trade headwinds support our overweight in Canadian bonds and preference for 5s10s steepeners. Employment fell by 40.8k, driven by a 51k drop in full-time jobs, yet…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
The Bank of Canada may be on hold for now, but deflationary risks are rising fast. Find out why rate cuts may come sooner than markets expect.