The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?
Consumption accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, and our recession view relies heavily on the deteriorating outlook for US consumers. That said, dissecting US GDP into its components reveals that consumption tends to…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the money sloshing around the financial system from pandemic-era stimulus measures disconnects near-term prospects for growth from risk asset prices. As a…
There is a path to a soft landing, but it is a narrow one. We estimate that there is only a 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. We are currently neutral on global equities, but expect to downgrade…
US durable goods orders surprised to the upside in April, growing 0.7% m/m against expectations they would decline. The March growth rate was nevertheless revised significantly lower, from 2.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m. Core capital…
Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is…
Investors generally associate higher investment rates with higher rates of growth. Indeed, companies at the beginning of their life cycle with a lot of high ROI opportunities will generally be more willing to invest their capital…
One of the most important factors for the success of tech stocks over the 2010s was monopoly power. Companies like Google, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft managed to develop entrenched moats in their own niches. This monopoly power…
Subdued credit growth and weak global trade will remain headwinds for Emirati stocks. Surging property prices, which have led to a boom in real estate stocks, will also peak soon. Stay neutral on this bourse. Sovereign credit…