US durable goods orders delivered a positive signal for the business spending outlook. The 1.4% increase in new orders for durable goods in February marks the first expansion in three months and beat expectations of a 1.0%…
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
Qatar’s strategy to raise LNG output 84% by 2030 is a bold bet DM demand for energy security – and EM demand for affordable electricity to support economic and population growth – will remain a higher priority than eliminating fossil…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the underperformance of European assets relative to the US is due its lagging productivity, even after adjusting for sectoral compositions in their stock…
Despite the economy being on the verge of a recession, the South African Reserve Bank will not ease policy meaningfully. Doing so will accentuate the currency depreciation, which, in turn, will push up bond yields – an outcome the…
Reported earnings for Q4-2023 were rather underwhelming and prone to issues that we have identified over the past few months: Growth is concentrated in just a few sectors and companies, while the profitability of a broad swath of the…
Supply and demand shocks in markets critical to the renewable-energy and defense industries will continue to play havoc with prices, which will negatively impact capex. In the short run, this benefits China given its already-dominant…
The Saudi economy is facing internal and external headwinds. The geopolitical conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. EM equity portfolios should stay neutral on Saudi stocks. EM sovereign credit portfolios should upgrade…
A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of…