The AI craze could further lift stock prices, boost capex, and delay the onset of the next recession. Looking further out, reaping the profit windfall from AI may take longer than many investors expect.

The crisis hitting regional and local banks in the US is adding to oil-price volatility and gold demand. The crisis arguably is fallout from the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, and contributes to the upending economic…

If the recession begins this year, it is unlikely to be mild, because inflation will not have fallen by enough to allow the Fed to cut rates aggressively. In contrast, if the recession starts in 2024 or later, when inflation is…

Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks was encouraging on balance. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low. Though a recession is…

We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase…

Tight monetary policy will suppress copper capex. Loose fiscal policy, which is lavishing stimulus on energy and defense firms, will stoke copper demand. Constrained copper supply and turbo-charged demand will feed into headline…

Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…

Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower…