In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Special Report

In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will…

It is too early to know whether the drop in bond yields will offset the drag on growth from tighter lending standards. But if it does, the net effect on equity valuations could be positive. This is enough to justify a modest tactical…

Systematically important central banks continue to compound policy errors, which will feed higher headline inflation. Hiking interest rates to induce labor-market slack – i.e., higher unemployment – to bring down core inflation will…

Long-term drivers, including the growing ability of banks to returns cash to shareholders, point toward a strong structural performance for European financials. However, the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign could still spoil the…

The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback.

Special Report

Copper prices are vulnerable to the downside in the coming months on a narrowing global supply-demand deficit. We expect that copper prices will plummet by 15-20% from the current level. However, the lingering structural supply…

Special Report

China’s semiconductor demand and imports will continue to contract in 2023H1. Despite economic reopening, Chinese consumers will hold back spending on smartphones, personal computers (PC) and other consumer electronics over the next…

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro,…

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.