Capex

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro, valuations, fundamentals, technicals, and the uses of cash. Our goal is to equip you with all the data you need to make investment decisions in these sectors.

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.

We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.

In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

European asset prices have rebounded sharply since September. Can this trend survive in the face of a weak Chinese economy where deflation prevails?

What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?

In this report, we identify the Norwegian krone as a currency that could outperform especially at the crosses, irrespective of the broad dollar trend.

While there is much variability in company profitability, earnings contractions have commenced and appear to be broad-based. We expect earnings growth to deteriorate further into year-end. Companies are reporting concerns about the trajectory of future economic growth and the uncertainty that it brings. Consumer spending on goods has slowed sharply, while spending on discretionary services has surprised on the upside. Business-to-business spending is still strong.

As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global equities over a 12-month horizon.

Copper markets will remain tight on the back of growing physical deficits and pressure on capex. Policy-rate increases by central banks, uncertainty over re-opening in China and its fiscal-stimulus plans in the short run restrain risk taking. In the long run, the implications of China’s inward turn will keep supply-concentration risk for metals high, given its dominance of base-metals refining globally. Notwithstanding the disconnect between physical and futures markets, we remain bullish metals mining equities, and remain long the XME ETF.