Chart Of The WeekEM Profits Contraction Today we are publishing a review of domestic demand conditions in each of the 22 emerging economies we cover. Domestic demand growth is either sluggish, decelerating or contracting in the…
Highlights A resurfacing of trade tensions could weigh on risk sentiment in the near term. A somewhat less dovish tone from the FOMC this month could further rattle risk assets. While we would not exclude the possibility of an…
There are two important implications related to this unprecedented divergence among property sales, starts and completions. The first is that raising funds via launching property starts along with shrinking completions has…
Consumption has been a relatively stable series over time, however, and its infrequent contractions tend to be pretty modest. The story is quite different for private domestic investment, which routinely makes wild swings, and…
Highlights Global Spread Product: The current low-volatility backdrop, triggered by more dovish central banks, will be maintained until there is more decisive evidence that global growth is rebounding. That will not occur until the…
An infrastructure bill has been the focus of economists and strategists as the next leg in fiscal easing to sustain the economy. On the face of it, such a thesis appears eminently believable. Despite historically low unemployment, 2018…
The good news is that the balance sheets of U.S. energy companies have improved markedly over the past few years. Rapid productivity gains have allowed shale producers to boost production to record levels without having to incur…
Several factors have weighed on business confidence outside the U.S. Among the chief worries, trade wars, a strong dollar, higher oil prices, emerging market turbulence, the return of Italian debt woes, and a slowdown in the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Higher interest rates, with the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy three more times in the next seven months, will be the dominant theme next year. All four of our high-conviction underweight…