Highlights In the near term, the PBoC is likely to set a stronger fixing rate against the dollar and dampen market expectations for further RMB declines. The PBoC hinted that the exchange rate can be used as a "countercyclical…
Highlights Business capital spending is still trending up, adding another layer of support for the U.S. economy in the next 6-12 months. Profit growth has accelerated at a faster pace than our top-down model had projected and we…
I am honored to join BCA Research as Senior Vice President of the U.S. Investment Strategy service. I have been researching and writing about the economy and financial markets for more than 30 years. I joined BCA Research from LPL…
Highlights The earnings rebound underway in Corporate America is being driven by more than just higher oil prices. S&P 500 profit margins have stabilized recently, but remain in secular decline. We remain bullish on the dollar…
Highlights Chinese fiscal stimulus, both direct fiscal spending and infrastructure investment, has slowed significantly since late last year. This raises a red flag on the sustainability of the cyclical upturn. The Chinese economy…
Highlights The U.S. is not yet a "high-pressure" economy, but slack is dissipating. U.S. growth, while not torrid, will remain high enough to push interest rates higher. The euro area continues to exhibit tepid domestic…
Highlights Recent U.S. economic data have surprised to the upside, raising the odds of a December rate hike. U.S. GDP growth is likely to accelerate further in 2017 on the back of stronger business capex, a turn in the inventory cycle…
India's agricultural output per capita has not increased at all. Thus, food and headline inflation will remain structurally high, which will negatively impact savings and investment dynamics in the years ahead. With respect to…