Five questions, five answers from the road. We unpack what Europe’s biggest investors are worried about right now, from trade‑war whiplash to bund‑versus‑Treasury positioning; and where the real opportunities still lie.
Hard aggregate macro data series remain solid, but surveys of businesses and consumers continue to worsen and the list of consumer-facing companies lowering earnings estimates gets longer by the week. We believe surging equities are…
Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks…
The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our…
Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and…
The sharp drop in March’s NFIB survey reinforces our defensive asset allocation, as small business sentiment weakens amid rising policy uncertainty. We remain overweight government bonds and underweight risk assets, while tactically…
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European…
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position…
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.