In Section I, Doug notes that the chaos of the new administration, including bellicose tariff threats and DOGE’s abrasive and indiscriminate approach, are sowing uncertainty and fortifying economic headwinds. Lowered guidance of…
Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German…
The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a…
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the…
Executive Summary The US Needs To Reduce Its Primary Budget Deficit By Nearly 4% Of GDP To Stabilize Debt Rising government debt in the US has heightened the risk of a fiscal crisis. If interest rates stay where they are, the US primary…
The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a…