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ECB: One More Cut In December Before A Waterfall In 2025

The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Fade The Rosier Picture From Unemployment Claims
Continued deterioration in labor demand underpins our expectation for a US recession, as it will lead to slower compensation growth, hobbling consumption spending’s main driver. We also previously highlighted that the outlook for bond yields currently hinges…
Daily Insights
Greek Stock Rally Is Long In The Tooth
Following a 12-year-long bear market, Greek equities have returned a whopping 186% in EUR terms from their 2016 lows. The Greek macroeconomic backdrop has indeed improved. Since 2021, Greece’s nominal GDP growth has exceeded the pace of growth in…
Daily Insights
US Small Business Optimism Unexpectedly Declined In August
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
Daily Insights
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Time To Play Defense

Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
BoC Cuts Rates For Third Consecutive Month
In a widely expected move, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point for a third consecutive month in September, lowering the benchmark overnight rate to 4.25%. Policymakers also signaled further easing ahead. Both the…
Daily Insights
Durable Goods Orders’ Rebound Hides Weaker Dynamics
Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders growth rebounded sharply from a 6.9% m/m contraction to 9.9% growth in July, upending expectations of a more muted 5.0% monthly increase. However, a 34.8% m/m rise in transportation equipment orders…
Daily Insights
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The Paradox Of A Weak NOK

In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor, Artem Sakhbiev
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One-Two Punch

Over the past few weeks, global equities have been hit by rising scepticism over the bullish AI narrative and increasing concerns over global growth. Stocks should stabilize in the near term, but the medium-term direction is to the downside. We expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 in 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3%.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Consumers More Pessimistic About Current Economic Conditions
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence surprised to the upside, rising from 97.8 to 100.3 in July. Respondents’ more optimistic economic outlook drove the overall increase, offsetting a bleaker view of current conditions. Consumers’ assessment of…
Daily Insights

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