Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an…
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.…
A drop in core capex orders points to slowing business spending and softening global growth. Businesses appear to have front-loaded shipments ahead of potential tariffs while deferring new orders amid policy uncertainty. With hiring…
Our China strategists published a quick note on China’s property market following the release of housing data earlier this week. China’s housing market is showing early signs of stabilization after three years of crisis, though…
Data released this Monday suggests that while China’s housing market is no longer worsening, the secular adjustment remains ongoing. Although aggregate housing demand may be stabilizing at a low level, supply will continue to…
Outside of the real estate sector, Chinese activity was decent in January and February. Both industrial production and retail sales were slightly stronger than expected. The jobless rate ticked up to 5.4% while property investment…
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by…
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and…