Our China Investment Strategy team assessed the country’s outlook in a context of underwhelming stimulus and rising trade tensions. Trump’s re-election raises the likelihood of tariff hikes on Chinese exports…
Trump's presidential re-election makes US tariff rate hikes on Chinese exports an imminent threat. Beijing has made extensive efforts to derisk the domestic economy and diversify trade away from the US. However, China is no better…
The month of November has brought us S&P 6,000! President Trump has won a “Red Sweep” (as we expected all year) and has ushered in a regime change in America. For now, we are open to chasing momentum. However, the biggest risk to…
China’s October data for inflation and money disappointed. Headline CPI decelerated to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.4% in September, and PPI deflation worsened at -2.9% vs. -2.8% a month prior. While broad measures such as M2…
As highlighted recently, we do not think China’s announced stimulus measures will be enough to stave off deflation (see Today’s Pick). To lift China’s economy, Beijing must unveil large fiscal transfers to…
Our China Investment Strategy team recently met with clients in China to assess investor sentiment and discuss the outlook as Beijing unveils new stimulus measures. China’s economic recovery faces headwinds and is…
We spent last week visiting our clients in China. In this report, we share some of the key questions from the client meetings as well as our responses.
Will the prospect of expanding trade tensions lead to more Chinese stimulus, and create an opportunity for Chinese equities? Not necessarily, as the election results were already factored in our EM and China strategists’…
The October ISM non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations, rising to 56 from 54.9 in September, up from a sub-50 low in June. Most components indicate an expansion, but the only significant increase came from employment. New orders…
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the…