China
China barely hit its growth target in 2024 by shifting back to its old model of exports, racking up a record trade surplus with the world – right as Donald Trump walks back into the White House. Tariffs will elicit larger fiscal stimulus even as China rolls out innovations such as DeepSeek to meet its 2025 industrial goals, creating a volatile mix this year.
Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China retaliates, and Taiwan tensions persist. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a marginally positive outcome for Europe, although it is not a long-term peace treaty.
We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers.
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
