Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

China

A Crude Assessment
Crude prices have been trendless but volatile in 2024. Oil’s choppy price action illustrates the demand and supply tug-o-war in the market. Our bias is for crude prices to weaken on a six-to-nine months horizon. Good economic news such as the resilience of…
Daily Insights
f_image_20241017_195524.PNG
The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
China Stimulus: Missing The Mark
China’s Housing Administration Chief held a press conference yesterday to unveil two property-sector stimulus plans. According to our China strategists, the details were underwhelming and led to a decline in Chinese equities. The major plan doubles credit…
Daily Insights
A Bearish Signal From Commodities
While recent cross-asset developments have sent a risk-on signal, with equities and bond yields both higher, the commodity complex has recently been sending a more somber message. “Dr. Copper” is a bellwether for the global economy given its industrial…
Daily Insights
China Stimulus: Rich In Promises, Short In Details
Our China and Emerging Market strategy teams analyzed this weekend press conference by the China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), that provided additional details on the recently announced fiscal stimulus plan. Our colleagues view the recent announcement as…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20241014_173556.PNG
Making Sense Of China’s Fiscal Promises

To produce a moderate economic recovery, at least RMB 3 trillion in additional government expenditures is needed in H1 2025. Our bias is that Beijing is not yet ready to launch such a massive fiscal support measure. Hence, volatility-adjusted equity returns in China will be poor.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
f_image_20241011_165932.PNG
Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Webcast
China: A Bull Market Or A Bull Trap?
The webcast addressed the following topics: Is the latest surge in Chinese share prices the beginning of a bull market or a bull trap? Are Chinese policy announcements sufficient to stabilize growth or create a cyclical recovery? How should investors position their portfolios regarding Chinese stocks and China-related plays outside China? What will it take for us to overweight EM in a global equity portfolio and go long EM in absolute terms on a medium-term basis? What are the implications of US and China’s macro developments for EM currency and fixed-income markets? What rationale is there for the long Chinese A shares / short Indian equity strategy?
Emerging Markets Strategy Webcast
NDRC Disappoints On Chinese Stimulus Details
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) provided no insights Tuesday on the size or nature of the fiscal stimulus Beijing promised in late September. The key takeaway of the authorities' first briefing following a weeklong national holiday…
Daily Insights
US-China Battle for Nuclear Energy Supremacy
In the fifth installment of a BCA Special Report series on nuclear energy, our colleagues argue that US nuclear energy dominance is decaying. Though still the world’s leader in generation and capacity, the US will not hold the mantle indefinitely given high…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia Mongolia Myanmar North Korea Pakistan Philippines Singapore See more Topics