Chinese property developers will require at least RMB 500 billion in additional government funding to prevent further declines in housing completions for the rest of 2024. However, without addressing the underlying challenges, any…
Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.1% y/y (3.6% YTD y/y) in July, from 3.6% (3.5%) in June. Upstream mining industries’ profits contracted 9.5% from January to July 2024, whereas downstream manufacturing sectors’…
The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession.…
EM equities have dramatically underperformed their US and Eurozone peers in USD terms over the past 15 years. The inability of EM and EM Asia companies to grow their EPS largely explains EM equities “lost decade” (and…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track…
China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained…
"There's no supply chain in the world that's more critical to us than China." — Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, March 2024 According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy and Emerging Market…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, US policy will have an impact on China’s willingness to adopt a preemptively hawkish foreign policy. But the US is in the middle of a chaotic election that…