China’s NBS manufacturing PMI declined further in July, from 49.5 to 49.4, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. New orders and new export orders underscored continued weakness in both domestic and foreign…
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.
Chinese industrial profits growth accelerated in June, rising from 0.7% y/y to 3.6%. Profits expanded at 3.5% in the first half of 2024, compared to 3.4% in the first half of 2023, and suggest that China’s manufacturing…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
Just a few days after unexpectedly lowering three key borrowing rates by 10 basis points (bps), the PBoC cut the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate by 20 bps, from 2.50% to 2.30%. While the earlier cut lowered the…
This report provides our framework for interpreting the messages from last week’s Third Plenum, and the potential implications for the economy and investors.
The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to…
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
Though hope springs eternal among global investors for big-bang stimulus from Beijing, the closely watched Third Plenum adjourned without any specific prescriptions to reverse China’s economic slump. The communiqu…