Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.
China's real GDP growth decelerated to 4.7% y/y in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1 and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%. Domestic demand weakened, with retail sales growth sliding to 2% y/y in June, down from 3.7% in the…
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through June. The stock of outstanding bank loans grew by 8.3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since records began in 2003.…
As highlighted in Wednesday’s edition of BCA Live & Unfiltered, the Chinese economy and its financial markets face several daunting challenges. Its demographic outlook is unfavorable, with a low birthrate stifling…
The Chinese currency has been under considerable depreciation pressure due to capital outflows. Additionally, the economy is grappling with debt deflation and a balance sheet recession, conditions that typically call for lower…
We expect continued softening in the US economy will lead to decelerating wage growth, muffling the principal consumption driver. Because the US has been the foremost catalyst for global growth in this cycle, a US recession will…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, onshore bonds are vulnerable to an investor sentiment reversal. Chinese 10-year government bond yields will likely trend lower to below 2% over the next 12…
The PBoC appears increasingly uncomfortable with the rapid decline in the Chinese government bond yields. While the PBoC will succeed in temporarily curbing investors’ enthusiasm for bonds, the central bank will be unwilling to raise…