China

China's cyclical and structural headwinds will likely undermine Beijing’s initiative to accelerate urban migration over the next five years.

The prices of multiple financial assets have failed to break above their technical resistances. When this occurs, a breakdown ensues. In brief, global risk assets remain vulnerable. We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from neutral to overweight and offshore ones from underweight to neutral within EM and global equity portfolios.

The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.

Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?