The RMB 500 billion program is small, as it is equivalent to only 4% of property developers' total funding from the past 12 months. This will preclude a recovery in property construction this year. Corporate profits will determine…
Industrial metals have outperformed the broad commodity complex this year and raced above the broad commodity complex even more meaningfully since the beginning of April. Our Commodity and Energy strategists have highlighted…
Several economic releases out of China disappointed in April. Retail sales decelerated from 3.1% y/y to 2.3% y/y and fixed asset investment growth slowed from 4.5% YTD y/y to 4.2% YTD y/y. Both were expected to accelerate.…
The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a decisive turnaround in China’s economy hinges on a revival in the country’s property market. The April 30th Politburo meeting signaled…
A reality check on credit data and announced property sector support measures indicates that the recent surge in Chinese share prices is unjustified based on the country's economic fundamentals.
Chinese aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, declined on a YTD basis, from CNY 12.9tr to CNY 12.7tr in April, disappointing expectations that it would grow to CNY 13.9tr. Moreover, new loan growth missed expectations (…
German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?
Upward growth revisions for China and India have led the IMF to recently upgrade its 2024 growth forecast for Asia to 4.5% from 4.2%. The regional growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 4.3%. The IMF now expects the…
The S&P GSCI broad commodity index has returned 8% year-to-date. Improving investor sentiment has significantly broadened the rally since the beginning of the year. Over 65% of commodities in the index are now trading above…