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China

China's Credit Growth Continues To Underwhelm
Chinese new loans grew from CNY 10.2 tr to CNY 11.1tr in May, disappointing expectations of CNY 11.3tr. Year-to-date aggregate financing also came short of anticipations, growing from CNY 12.7tr to CNY 14.8tr. Notably, the contraction in M1 worsened from 1.4%…
Daily Insights
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The US Consumer Is NOT In Great Shape

Global consumer spending is likely to slow over the coming quarters, culminating in a major economic downturn in late 2024 or early 2025. Investors should maintain benchmark exposure to equities for now but look to turn more defensive by the end of this summer.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
EU Tariffs On Chinese EVs Are Less Than Meets The Eye
On Wednesday, the European Commission announced it would impose tariffs ranging between 17% and 38% on imports of Chinese EVs starting next month. These duties will be applied on top of existing 10% across-the-board tariffs on all Chinese EV imports, and…
Daily Insights
China's State Subsidies Are Overstated
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, it is an overstatement to assert that China’s subsidies are the main driver of its green energy industries’ competitiveness. It is commonly perceived that China heavily subsidizes its industry…
Daily Insights
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Rethinking China's Industrial Overcapacity

The issue of "industrial overcapacity" in China may be a misconception. Overcapacity in the old-economy sectors has largely diminished, while China's dominance in the global green-energy market reflects its technological advancements and innovations.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Excess Savings Won’t Save China's Economy
The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China, households nevertheless accumulated CNY…
Daily Insights
Fade The Strength In Chinese Exports
China’s exports in USD terms surged 7.6% y/y in May, from 1.5% in April, surpassing expectations of a 5.7% gain. However, base effects largely overstate the strength of Chinese exports given that they contracted by 8% y/y in May 2023. Subsequent declines…
Daily Insights
Why Are China's Manufacturing PMIs Diverging?
The Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI reached a two-year high in May, expanding at a larger-than-expected rate from 51.4 to 51.7. The Caixin figure thus contrasts with the alternative NBS manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly contracted in May. The Caixin…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: When Strong Growth Is Not Good News

The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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Is Europe Doomed To Underperform Forever?

European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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