In a recent Insight we highlighted that the selloff in the price of iron ore – which is down 25.4% year-to-date – is sending a pessimistic signal on China’s economy, suggesting that the current rally in Chinese…
Chinese private sector credit demand remained weak in February, sending a negative signal about domestic economic conditions. Total social financing growth slowed from a record CNY6.5 trillion in January to CNY1.56 trillion,…
Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination…
The stimulus measures announced at last week's NPC were not a game changer. As in 2023, we expect aggregate government spending will fall short of the budgeted amount again this year.
China’s NBS PMI release indicates that the Chinese growth is stabilizing at a low level. The composite PMI came in at 50.9 – unchanged from January. The stabilization was led by the non-manufacturing sector though…
Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.
On the surface, the latest Taiwanese export orders release delivered a positive signal on the global trade cycle. The 1.9% y/y expansion in January marks a significant improvement from the 16.0% contraction in December. Moreover…