On the surface, domestic economic data painted a mixed picture of conditions in China at the end of 2023. On the positive side, the December trade data beat expectations. The dollar value of Chinese imports expanded by 0.2% y/…
Chinese credit dynamics remain muted with the expansion in total social financing easing from 2.45 trillion yuan to 1.94 trillion yuan in December, below expectations of a tamer slowdown to 2.16 trillion yuan. Loan growth also…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the recent improvement in global manufacturing and Asian exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle amelioration rather than a cyclical recovery. Global…
The combined US credit impulse and fiscal thrust indicator will likely relapse in 2024, heralding growth weakness. Stalling US sales volume and falling inflation, combined with sticky labor costs, will herald a non-trivial profit…
Taiwan’s December trade data corroborates the signal from other Asian exporters (such as South Korea) that global manufacturing activity is experiencing a mini revival. Taiwanese exports surged by 11.8% y/y last month,…
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the structural landscape of China's property market today is, in many aspects, more challenging than the real estate markets in Japan and the US at the peak…
A low multiplier effect of stimulus will reduce the magnitude of the rebound in China's business activities in 2024. The housing market downturn will likely persist, and the ongoing household deleveraging also poses a significant…