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China

China's PSL Relaunch: A Game Changer?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the current Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) program will provide much less support to the housing market and construction activity than the 2015-2018 program. China’s central bank…
Daily Insights
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China: Challenges Tackling Deflation

There is no easy way for China to forestall deflation. Provided policymakers are still reluctant to unleash large-size stimulus, more economic disappointments are likely in the coming months, and Chinese stocks will continue to sell off. The yuan is at risk of further depreciation versus the US dollar.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu
China's Economic Outlook Remains Gloomy
Chinese data continues to send a pessimistic signal for domestic risk assets and China plays. Although at 5.2% in Q4, GDP growth stands above the official target, it underwhelmed anticipations of 5.3%. Moreover, other data releases reveal that the economy…
Daily Insights
PBoC Unexpectedly Holds Medium-Term Rate Steady
China’s central bank unexpectedly held the medium-term policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, surprising expectations of a 10 basis point cut. Given that deflationary forces dominate China’s economy, the decision to stand pat underscores that policymakers…
Daily Insights
China's Reaction To Taiwan Vote
China will increase economic and military pressure on Taiwan but there is no basis for immediate full-scale war. That is the takeaway from the Taiwanese election on January 13, which returned the nominally pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party to the…
Daily Insights
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Taiwan Gridlock: Short TWD-USD

Taiwan’s election will lead to serious Chinese military and economic pressure but not full-scale war. War is a long-term concern. Investors should short TWD-USD.

Geopolitical Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Matt Gertken, Arthur Budaghyan
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Global Green Energy Rush And Its Impact On Copper

The global green energy rush faces mounting headwinds. Additional global solar and wind capacity installations will have considerable growth reduction this year. Copper prices did not drop much in 2023 due to surging demand from green power build-up. Green power will be less positive for copper demand in 2024 than in 2023. We expect more downside in global renewable energy stocks.

China Investment Strategy
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A New World Trade Order?

We share the edited transcript of a webinar we participated in discussing global trade, trade wars and tariffs, as well as de-risking strategies.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
Deflationary Headwinds Dominate In China
On the surface, domestic economic data painted a mixed picture of conditions in China at the end of 2023. On the positive side, the December trade data beat expectations. The dollar value of Chinese imports expanded by 0.2% y/y, surprising anticipations…
Daily Insights
Chinese Private Sector Credit Demand Remains Weak
Chinese credit dynamics remain muted with the expansion in total social financing easing from 2.45 trillion yuan to 1.94 trillion yuan in December, below expectations of a tamer slowdown to 2.16 trillion yuan. Loan growth also disappointed, with the 1.17…
Daily Insights

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