Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.
A cyclical recovery in China’s economy is still not imminent. The PBoC has tightened interbank liquidity to stabilize the exchange rate since late August. This does not bode well for the real economy. The uptick in onshore bond…
Chinese industrial profits for October delivered a pessimistic signal on Monday as the annual growth rate eased to 2.7% y/y. While the latest update marks the third consecutive month of profit growth, it is a sharp slowdown from…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
A series of notable events took place over the Thanksgiving holiday but none of them force us to change our fundamental assessments. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate rather than de-escalate, while the Taiwan…
China’s push to dramatically expand its copper-refining capacity will be complemented by further vertical integration of mining assets. However, surplus refining capacity will push treatment and refining charges lower in the short…
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive…
