The global downturn will be shallower than it was in 2008 and in 2020 but will last for longer. The primary reason for a more prolonged downturn is that policymakers in the US, Europe, and China will be reluctant to proactively and…
Taiwanese export orders sent a disappointing signal about global manufacturing conditions on Wednesday, corroborating the message from Singapore’s NODX release earlier this week. The pace of decline in export orders…
China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should…
The Chinese economy will not recover without significant “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is still unlikely for the time being. Dim economic fundamentals justify lower valuations of Chinese equities. Lingering deflationary…
While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading…
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP…
The CRB Raw Industrials Price Index has been relatively stable over most of 2023. To the extent that the index contains non-tradable raw materials such as burlap, hide, rosin, and tallow, it is less influenced by speculative…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, lower valuation readings in Chinese equities are justified by fundamentals. In absolute terms, valuations of both A-shares and investable stocks are…
While Chinese stocks have low valuations and are oversold, their attractiveness is dampened by uncertainties in the magnitude of stimulus and the dismal outlook for corporate profits in the next six to nine months.
Recent Chinese economic data show some signs of stabilization. China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in August. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY3.12 trillion – above expectations of CNY2.69…