China

Despite higher uncertainty, our Brent price forecasts remain unchanged at just over $101/bbl for 4Q23 and $118/bbl for next year. We remain long equity exposure to oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF, and commodity exposure via the COMT ETF. We also remain long $100 Dec24 Brent calls and long 1Q24 Brent futures vs. short 1Q25 Brent futures in anticipation of stronger backwardation.

As global financial institutions like the IMF draw attention to the real-estate crisis in China, the CCP will be forced to step up regulatory and restructuring efforts to contain its spread and limit further contagion domestically and globally. The Party also will be forced to deliver stronger fiscal- and monetary-policy support to beleaguered banks and developers. We expect it to do so, which keeps us bullish energy and metals. Failure raises the odds of a collapse in the property markets, which would be socially destabilizing, and lead to greater risk aversion and volatility globally.

Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Yet, Chinese automakers are set to gain a larger share of the global market. Go long Chinese automakers / short global ones.

Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven investment with carry.

The bear market in US bonds will likely end with a bang rather than a whimper. Even during the secular US bond bull market of 1982-2021, cyclical bond bear markets ended only after an eruption of financial turmoil. It would be strange if this current ascent in bond yields ended without significant casualties in the global financial system.